The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL -in spanish), presented its last report in performing their forecasts in terms of climate changes ahead and Uruguay will have some aspects that will benefit even in principle, but not in the long run.
Although the forecasts in the medium term for key sectors such as availability of fresh water, biodiversity, general health, sea levels, and others, will be conditioned by increases in average temperatures, it seems that the “costs of adaptation” to represent new scenario to 0.5% of GDP set in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Uruguay, as the region is conditioned by climatic variation not to exceed a degree, the most favorable scenario but less likely in the next 25 years could even benefit from increased tourism activity, but progressively deteriorating shorefront would be a decisive element of future decline.
“The biggest concern about climate change will focus, according to these results, the consequences in the energy sector, extreme events and biodiversity, as well as in tourism from 2050, while negative impacts on primary sectors accentuated if the temperature rises more than 2 ° C above current levels, “says the CEPAL report.
The problems in the production of the first levels
While changes in temperature rise could shed a higher yield of crops and pasture quality during most of the year, the positive effects for the first production levels in the country, could deteriorate rapidly if temperatures rise above 2 Celsius degrees.
According to CEPAL on its website, “The Economics of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: paradoxes and challenges of sustainable development”, the region should prioritize sustainable development in the near future to preserve economic assets, social and natural, a “goal to be achieved within the framework of economic growth with greater equality and social inclusion, on a path of growth with low carbon”.
In that line, CEPAL emphasizes that “the challenge of climate change is also the challenge of sustainable development, and its solution requires reaching a comprehensive agreement that asymmetries and paradoxes of problem to be recognized”
Source | http://www.lr21.com.uy